LGBTIQ* Election Study: German General Elections (2021)
Background information on the study
A team of political scientists from the Justus Liebig University Giessen, the University of Vienna and the Danube University Krems have conducted several studies on LGBTIQ* voting behaviour since 2015. In the context of the project, the acronym LGBTIQ* stands for lesbian, gay, bisexual, transsexual, intersexual and queer*. Sexual and/or romantic orientations should not be confused or equated with gender identities, as they are seen as something separate.
For the 2021 federal election, a new LGBTIQ* election study is now available, conducted by political scientists from the Justus Liebig University Giessen in cooperation with the Lesbian and Gay Association of Germany (LSVD). The non-partisan study was carried out without financial support from third parties.
In Germany, between 1.8 and 3 million eligible voters are estimated to be LGBTIQ*. The LGBTIQ* election studies are therefore very important for political and scientific reasons - the aim is to increase the visibility of LGBTIQ* and their political interests, to reduce prejudices and to contribute to LGBTIQ* being adequately represented in science and politics. The detailed results of the election studies are published online and can thus stimulate further discussions in the LGBTIQ* community, in political parties and NGOs as well as in academia.
From a methodological point of view, LGBTIQ* represent a so-called special population, the distribution of which in the basic population of the German electorate is not precisely known for understandable reasons. As a rule, no data on gender identity or sexual orientation is collected in standard election polls. Even if these questions were desirable in the interest of making social diversity visible, the case numbers of common surveys would not be sufficient to make valid empirical statements about political attitudes and preferences of LGBTIQ* voters: With the usual number of cases of around 1,000 respondents per survey, data would potentially be collected from around 50 to 80 LGBTIQ* people. This number of cases would clearly be too small to make differentiations and valid statements on voter profiles, for example.
The LGBTIQ* Election studies, on the other hand, focus on the special population of LGBTIQ* and reach them with a random procedure. This is a so-called self-selective sample - anyone who wanted to could participate in the study and fill out the online questionnaire distributed via the internet, social networks and multipliers.
Thus, more than 8,000 people already participated in the first nationwide LGBTIQ* Election Study for a federal election in 2017; in 2021 even more than 9,000 people. Some of these people merely clicked through the questionnaire curiously, but did not answer many of the questions. Thus, sometimes the questions about sexual orientation and/or party preference, which are crucial for the analysis, were not answered.
The analysis of the LGBTIQ* Election Study for the 2021 Bundestag Election ultimately included those 5,149 people who, on the one hand, are eligible to vote as German citizens and, on the other hand, are not exclusively heterosexual. With this survey method, solid empirical data on the attitudes, interests and preferences of the LGBTIQ* community in Germany can be obtained. The two existing studies on the 2017 and 2021 federal elections are, in international comparison, the LGBTIQ* election study with the largest sample worldwide to date.
However, this method is not suitable for calculating an inferential statistical election forecast: The prerequisite for conducting a representative survey is that data on the population is available. However, this prerequisite is not given with regard to LGBTIQ* persons - it is simply not known how many LGBTIQ* persons actually live in Germany and what their socio-economic characteristics are, such as age, marital status, occupation, level of education, etc. The questionnaire is not suitable for calculating inferential statistics.
The online questionnaire of the LGBTIQ* Election Study for the Bundestag Election 2021 consisted of 26 questionnaires and could be completed online on the servers of the University of Giessen from 15 July to 15 August 2021.
Strong changes in party preference
The results show that LGBTIQ* voters have a clear preference for Bündnis90/Die Grünen. More than half of the respondents (52.6%) want to vote for the Greens in the upcoming federal election. The Left Party is also successful in convincing 17.4% of LGBTIQ* respondents. In this respect, these approval ratings are far above the current approval ratings of these two parties as currently surveyed by conventional election polls among the general electorate in Germany. LGBTIQ* obviously belong to the stable voter base for Bündnis90/Die Grünen and Die Linke in the 2021 Bundestag elections. Apart from the parties represented in the Bundestag, quite a few of the LGBTIQ* voters surveyed expressed a preference for smaller parties for the pan-European party VOLT, the Pirate Party, the satirical party DIE PARTEI and the Humanist Party.
In this context, the strong changes compared to the last federal election are also striking. Compared to the data of the LGBTIQ* Election Study 2017, the approval rating for the Greens has increased by 23%. The approval ratings for the CDU/CSU (2017: 6.9%; 2021: 3.2%) and SPD (2017: 21.2%; 2021: 9.1%), while already low, are no longer even half as high compared to 2017. This development is also confirmed within the data set of this year's LGBTIQ* Election Study, where retrospective questions were also asked about the voting decision in the last federal election in 2017. The government policies of the last legislative period have apparently left their mark on LGBTIQ* voters. Among other things, the recent votes in the Bundestag on the Transsexual Act and on blood donation may have contributed to this: For example, 82.8% of the SPD voters surveyed do not like the fact that their preferred party in the Bundestag rejected the repeal of the Transsexual Act. On the other hand, Bündnis90/Die Grünen have benefited from their commitment to transsexuals with their Bundestag initiative: "I vote for the Greens because of the draft for a self-determination law and thus the abolition of the inhumane transsexual law," wrote one participant of the study in one of the 18 free fields of the online questionnaire.
Regional differences play a subordinate role in the party preference of LGBTIQ* for most parties. The vote shares for the SPD, FDP, CDU/CSU and AfD are very similar in the east and west. However, there are differences for Die Linke and Bündnis90/Die Grünen: While the vote shares for the Greens are higher in the West (West: 54.6%; East: 44.9), they are higher in the East for Die Linke (East: 24.8%; West 15.4%).
Volatility (fluctuations in voting behaviour over time) is very high overall. Only some of the LGBTIQ* voters surveyed would like to vote for the same party in the 2021 federal election as in 2017. The proportion of these loyal voters is still highest for the SPD (65.8%) and the AfD (62.1%). However, the SPD has now lost 15.3% of its 2017 voters to the Greens. In the other parties, the stable party loyalty of LGBTIQ* is even weaker (CDU 58.4%; Left 56.2%; Greens 55% and FDP 51.5%).
Overall, therefore, there is a lot of movement in the party preference of LGBTIQ*. The approval ratings for the individual parties have changed. And the parties only succeed to a modest extent in retaining LGBTIQ* voters permanently.
Differences in relation to sexual orientation
The largest subgroup of LGBTIQ* respondents in the study is that of gay men. Here it can be seen that gay men have a greater preference for the FDP and SPD, but also for the CDU/CSU and AfD (albeit at a low level), compared to the entire sample, but especially also compared to lesbians. For example, while only 2.4% of the lesbians surveyed would like to vote for the FDP in the upcoming federal election, the figure among gays is 11.2%. Among lesbians, however, the preference for Die Linke (16.2%) is somewhat less pronounced than the average of the study; Bündnis90/Die Grünen (63.3%) also benefit from this.
Compared to the average of all study participants, asexuals, pansexuals and study participants who otherwise describe their sexual orientation as "queer" have a stronger preference for Bündnis90/Die Grünen and Die Linke. Bisexual respondents prefer the FDP slightly more (7.3%) and Bündnis90/Die Grünen slightly less (47.9%) than the study average.
Unfortunately, only 58 trans* persons eligible to vote took part in the LGBTIQ* Election Study for the Bundestag elections, so the data of this subgroup cannot be analysed in greater depth. However, the trend of party preference for Bündnis90/Die Grünen and Die Linke is also evident for this group of people.
Voters of individual parties
In the online questionnaire of the LGBTIQ* Election Study, participants had the opportunity to explain their party preference in their own words. Many justify their voting decision by saying that they choose the "lesser of two evils" or that they vote for a certain party for strategic reasons. So it is often a kind of negative selection - people vote for what is left at the end of the rejections. In a comparison of the competing parties, it is noticeable that the proportion of women is highest among Green voters. The Green Party's voter profile thus differs markedly from that of the FDP and the AfD, which show a strong male dominance with 85.9% and 84.5% respectively. The proportion of students is above average for Die Linke and the Greens. Among Union voters, on the other hand, the high proportion of voters with a church affiliation (53.1%) is striking, as is the proportion of married women voters (33.5%).
LGBTIQ* voters of parties that are not yet represented in the Bundestag are predominantly employees (38.9%) or students (23.8%) and assess their own economic situation as worse than the average respondent. Many of these LGBTIQ* respondents are still undecided with regard to their voting decision in the Bundestag election, would like to inform themselves further and/or wait for further developments before making a strategic voting decision. Sometimes they are also resigned to the established parties: one study participant writes: "Maybe a small party, I'm afraid that as a trans person no party will stand up for my rights"; another: "Currently, none of the big parties is electable for me, because LGBTIQ* issues in particular are talked down or the parties send contradictory signals that ultimately make it clear that LGBTIQ* issues are considered unimportant.
Perspectives for research
This innovative project examines a part of society that has so far been neglected in conventional election studies: the LGBTIQ* community. In this respect, the LGBTIQ* Election Study provides new impulses for political debates and, of course, also for political science. For this presentation, only a small part of the available data could be analysed at short notice. What has been missing so far are analyses of political attitudes and socio-political engagement. The team of researchers involved is still working on this project and will continue to publish the results.
See the German version of this page for detailled information (in German)
LGBTIQ* Election Survey: Austrian General Elections (2019)
Between 1 and 22 September 2019, the online election survey for the 2019 National Council election was conducted, which investigates the interests, attitudes and political engagement of LGBTIQ* citizens in Austria. Which parties will gay, lesbian, bisexual, transsexual, pansexual or queer people vote for in the National Council election on 29 September 2019? What political and social issues are of concern to the LGBTIQ* community? Which issues are decisive for the respondents? What forms of political participation are there? The survey project seeks answers to these and other questions on political attitudes and social participation. The innovative study takes a look at a part of society that has so far been neglected in traditional electoral and attitudinal research: LGBTIQ* citizens.
The independent study is conducted by a team of scientists from Danube University Krems. The survey is anonymous and no personal data will be collected or stored.
The results of this LGBTIQ* election study have not yet been published.
LGBTIQ* Election Study: German General Elections (2017)
Party preference, election-deciding issues and the division of the LGBTIQ* community
The results show that the LGBTIQ* community is more engaged than average in politics and society. The engagement is by no means limited to issues that directly affect the community or LGBTIQ* rights. Rather, engagement is diverse and very high, especially in the social sphere.
The party preference of LGBTIQ* voters for Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Die Linke and SPD is obvious. In the new federal states, Die Linke is in the lead, in the old federal states Bündnis90/Die Grünen as a rule. The preference for Bündnis 90/Die Grünen and Die Linke is more pronounced among lesbians than among gays, while the proportion of gays who prefer the SPD is larger than that of lesbians. Trans* people, pansexuals and bisexuals show a stronger party preference for Die Linke in comparison. Support for the AfD is very low among LGBTIQ* people.
Discrimination, homophobia and transphobia are still virulent problems
In particular, supporters of Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Die Linke and the SPD consider these problems to be very important in socio-political terms. However, other issues are also decisive for LGBTIQ* voters in Germany, especially migration, asylum and refugee policy, education policy and environmental protection. For the LGBTIQ* community, it is important that candidates and parties are committed to the LGBTIQ* community. The fact that candidates are running for election who are themselves out plays only a secondary role.
Innovation in electoral research and relevant results for parties
This innovative project examines a part of society that has so far been neglected in conventional election studies: the LGBTIQ* community. In this respect, the election study provides new impulses for political debates and, of course, also for political science.
The results also offer parties new opportunities to engage with the interests and preferences of their LGBTIQ* voters. Parties that understand LGBTIQ* politics as a cross-cutting issue and show solidarity with the community meet the expectations of the community. Against the background of the above-average political interest and commitment of LGBTIQ* persons, it is obvious that many parties have so far left this potential unused. At the same time, parties with a progressive agenda find solid support among LGBTIQ* voters even in those regions where they otherwise have problems mobilising voters; this applies, for example, to Die Linke in the old federal states and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen in the new federal states.
See Publications or the German version of this page for detailled information (in German)
LGBTIQ* Election Study: Austrian General Elections (2017)
Party preferences and electoral issues of the LGBTIQ* community
The results show that the LGBTIQ* community is engaged in politics and society to an above-average extent. The engagement is by no means limited to issues that directly affect the community or LGBTIQ* rights. Rather, engagement is diverse and very high, especially in the social sphere.
The party preference of LGBTIQ* voters for left-wing parties is obvious. The Greens and the SPÖ in particular do well among LGBTIQ* voters. NEOS and Liste Pilz also score well with LGBTIQ* voters. The preference for Die Grünen is stronger among lesbians than among gays, while the share of gays who prefer SPÖ, NEOS and Liste Pilz is larger than that of lesbians. Support for ÖVP and FPÖ is very low among LGBTIQ* persons. At the same time, these two parties do not offer anything for LGBTIQ* voters in their election programmes, nor is it even mentioned. The SPÖ, the Greens and the NEOS, on the other hand, explicitly speak out in favour of equality for LGBTIQ* persons.
The issues of homophobia and discrimination are important for the LGBTIQ* supporters of the Greens, SPÖ, NEOS and Liste Pilz. Marriage for all" is also central. In addition, the topics of migration, asylum and refugee policy, discrimination and education policy are considered very important. The demands that parties pursue LGBTIQ*-friendly policies and that candidates show solidarity with the LGBTIQ* community are considered far more important than the desire for candidates who are out.
The study also provides an insight into the diversity of sexual orientations and identities in Austria, beyond the categories of heterosexual, lesbian and gay.
Innovation in electoral research and relevant results for political parties
This innovative project examines a part of society that has so far been neglected in conventional election studies: the LGBTIQ* community. In this respect, the election study provides new impulses for political debates and, of course, also for political science.
The results also offer parties new opportunities to engage with the interests and preferences of their LGBTIQ* voters. Parties that understand LGBTIQ* politics as a cross-cutting issue and show solidarity with the community meet the expectations of the community. Against the background of the above-average political interest and commitment of LGBTIQ* persons, it is obvious that many parties have so far left this potential unused.
See Publications or the German version of this page for detailled information (in German)
LGBTIQ* Election Study: Berlin House of Representatives (2016)
Electoral issues and the division of the LGBTIQ* community
The results show that people from the LGBTIQ* community are more engaged than average in politics and society. The engagement is by no means limited to issues that directly affect the community or LGBTIQ* rights. Rather, engagement is diverse and very high, especially in the social sphere. Important and decisive issues for LGBTIQ* voters in Berlin are above all homophobia, migration, asylum and refugee policy, discrimination and xenophobia. On the one hand, this shows that LGBTIQ* people in the supposedly cosmopolitan and tolerant Berlin still have major problems with homophobia and discrimination. On the other hand, the current division of society on the issue of asylum and the encounter with Islam/Muslims is also recognisable within the LGBTIQ* community. One side demands special measures for LGBTIQ* refugees and protection and social inclusion, while the other side blames Islam for hatred and violence against gays. The attitudes held by the LGBTIQ* community thus cover the entire political spectrum. The party political preferences of LGBTIQ* voters are predominantly for left-wing parties or parties of the centre-left (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Die Linke and SPD). The support of bourgeois parties (FDP, CDU) or right-wing populists (AfD) is low. In a weakened form, the current success of the AfD is therefore also reflected in Berlin's LGBTIQ* community, especially among men who had voted for the CDU, SPD, Greens or FDP in the last parliamentary elections in 2011.
Innovation in electoral research and relevant results for parties
For the first time, the innovative study takes a look at a part of society that has so far been left under the table in classic election studies in Berlin and Germany and Europe: the LGBTIQ* community. The election study thus provides new impulses for political science and for political debates. The results also offer parties new opportunities to engage with the interests and preferences of their LGBTIQ* voters. Parties that understand LGBTIQ* politics as a cross-cutting issue and show solidarity with the community meet the expectations of the community. Against the background of the above-average political interest and commitment of the LGBTIQ* community, it is obvious that many parties have so far left this potential unused.
See Publications or the German version of this page for detailled information (in German)
LGBTIQ* Election Study: Vienna Municipal Council Election (2015)
Diversity in the community and diverse engagement
In the run-up to the 2015 municipal elections, a team of researchers from the University of Vienna and the University of Giessen studied the voting behaviour and political engagement of the LGBTIQ* community in Vienna. The results of this study refute the often articulated assumptions that the queer community, as a homogeneous group, is politically primarily concerned with its own interests.
427 people took part in the online survey. The results show that people from the community are more involved than average in politics and society. Their involvement is by no means limited to issues that directly affect the community or LGBTIQ* rights. Rather, the commitment is diverse and very high, especially in the social sphere.
Important and decisive issues for queer voters in Vienna are above all social issues such as housing, work and (anti-)discrimination. However, current problems such as migration and asylum also play a role. It is striking that the attitudes represented by the queer community cover the entire political spectrum.
Innovation in electoral research and relevant results for political parties
For the first time, this innovative study takes a look at a part of society that has so far been neglected in traditional election studies in Vienna and Austria: the LGBTIQ* community. The election study thus provides new impulses for political science and for political debates.
The results also offer parties new opportunities to engage with the interests and preferences of their queer voters. Parties that understand queer politics as a cross-cutting issue and show solidarity with the community meet the expectations of the community. Against the background of the above-average political interest and commitment of the LGBTIQ* community, it is obvious that many parties have so far left this potential unused.
See Publications or the German version of this page for detailled information (in German)
