Ehemalige Promovenden/-innen

Five Applications of Data Analysis in Interdisziplinary Research

• Bearbeiterin: Jenny Bethäuser

• Titel: Five Applications of Data Analysis in Interdisziplinary Research

• Kategorie: Promotion

• Fachgebiet: Volkswirtschaftslehre

• Status: Abgeschlossen 04.11.2024

• Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Peter Winker, Prof. Dr. Mirjam Stockburger

• Abstract: The following chapters present five papers compiled for my dissertation. The title page of each chapter provides insight into the co-authors and the publication status alongside the title. Despite their content diverging considerably, a few common threads can be identified. All five papers (Chapters 2–6) are in part empirical works that encompass not only theoretical considerations but rely on data analyses as well. Broadly, four papers (Chapters 3–6) can be categorized under the theme of health economics. Two of these papers primarily delve into the field of human medicine (Chapters 3 and 4), while the other two are rooted in the realm of veterinary medicine (Chapters 5 and 6), whereby Chapter 6 includes a detour into environmental sciences as well.
  I Bethäuser, J., Menold, N. & Winker, P. (2024). The Impact of Statistical Literacy and Economic Incentives on the (Mis-)Use of Survey Based Statistics in Media Reporting – A Framework. will be submitted to Public Opinion Quarterly.
  II Bethäuser, J. & Muschol, J. (2020). The Die is Cast – Factors Influencing Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic. MAGKS Discussion Paper, 20-2020.
  III Bethäuser, J. (2024). Causal Impact of Policy Measures and Behavior on the COVID Pandemic in Germany. MAGKS Discussion Paper, 11-2024.
  IV Abdallah, M., Bethäuser, J., Tettenborn, F., Hein, A. & Hamann, M. (2024a). Survey of Drug Use and its Association with Herd-level and Farm-level Characteristics on German Dairy Farms. Journal of Dairy Science, 107(5), 2954-2967.
  V Abdallah, M., Bethäuser, J., Tettenborn, F., Hein, A. & Hamann, M. (2024b). Pharmaceutical Consumption in Human and Veterinary Medicine: Potential Environmental Challenges. under review in Frontiers in Environmental Science.

Three Essays on Application of Text Analytics in Economics

• Bearbeiterin: Dania Eugenidis

• Titel: Three Essays on Application of Text Analytics in Economics

• Kategorie: Promotion

• Fachgebiet: Allgemeine Betriebswirtschaftslehre

• Status: Abgeschlossen 01.06.2023

• Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Peter Winker, Prof. Dr. Alina Sorgner

• Abstract: Text analytics plays an increasingly important role in various fields, including economics. Overall, text analyses can provide valuable insights into economic trends and events, helping to make better informed decisions in policy making, trend analysis and predictions. It provides a powerful tool for analyzing large amounts of mainly unstructured textual data and enlarges the spectrum of answering economic questions. It is possible to transform the field of Economics by enabling researchers to analyze unstructured, large and complex datasets and extract information in ways that have been impossible previously. In this thesis, different applications of text analytics form the core of this work: While the first paper presents a capital market analysis, the following two articles investigate a labor market related issue.

Essays on the Application of Statistical Learning in Empirical Economic Research

• Bearbeiter: Julian Oliver Dörr

• Titel: Essays on the Application of Statistical Learning in Empirical Economic Research

• Kategorie: Promotion

• Fachgebiet: Allgemeine Betriebswirtschaftslehre

• Status: Abgeschlossen 07.07.2022

• Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Peter Winker, Prof. Dr. Christian Aßmann

Machine Learning and Web Text Analytics for Economic Research

• Bearbeiter: David Lenz

• Titel: Machine Learning and Web Text Analytics for Economic Research

• Kategorie: Promotion

• Fachgebiet: Allgemeine Betriebswirtschaftslehre

• Status: Abgeschlossen 15.05.2021

• Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Peter Winker, Prof. Dr. Monika Schumacher

• Abstract: Machine learning and artificial intelligence are key technologies for the next century. In this thesis I present my work using machine learning and especially naturallanguage processing to solve economic problems, with a focus on innovation economics. The contribution I am making with my co-authors is primarily of a methodological nature. I focus on data-driven solutions incorporating (web-based) textual data. Besides the incorporation of novel methods and data sources, another main goal of my research is to tighten the research-to-production gap, sometimes also called science-to-practice gap, i.e. the time it takes industry to exploit scientific research results. Another important, however more minor, theme is the usage of mass web data. Thereby, my co-authors and me contributed to the literature by providing several novel web based indicators through mass web text analysis. The de-veloped web data based indicators provide valuable advantages over conventional instruments, i.e. timeliness, granularity, frequency and low-resource usage.

Essays on the Econometric Analysis of Energy Markets and Climate Change

• Bearbeiter: Dr. Christoph Funk
• Titel: Essays on the Econometric Analysis of Energy Markets and Climate Change
• Kategorie: Promotion
• Fachgebiet: Allgemeine Betriebswirtschaftslehre
• Status: Abgeschlossen 18.01.2021
• Bearbeitungszeitraum: Juli 2016 - August 2020
• Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Peter Winker, Prof. Dr. Peter Tillmann
• Abstract: This PhD thesis uses econometric techniques to provide new insights into energy markets and climate change. The developed econometric models are applied in six research articles that focus on energy markets, financial economics, climate vulnerability and adaptation strategies, and the impacts of climate change on coastal regions. The first part of the thesis is dedicated to the econometric analysis of the oil market. Crude oil and its derivatives are the world’s most commonly traded commodities. Although the energy landscape is in a state of transition, crude oil has been and will likely remain important in the context of global energy consumption. By focusing on econometric and time series regression models, Chapter 2 examines whether it is possible to generate reliable long-term monthly forecasts of the real price of crude oil and how these can be improved using forecast combinations. Chapter 3 investigates the North American oil industry using firm-level data. The relationship between oil prices, oil market volatility, and the cost of debt for oil firms is analyzed empirically using a distributed lag model and a panel data “within-between” approach. The second part of the thesis focuses on climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategies in the context of smallholder farmers in the Indian watersheds. The global climate has changed relative to the pre-industrial period. Moreover, this change already affects ecosystems and livelihoods worldwide. This has severe implications for food production and security, especially for the rain-fed agricultural systems that dominate much of tropical agriculture and are extremely vulnerable to projected climate change. Consequently, Chapters 4 and 5 focus on two research questions related to watershed development programs and factors that affect the adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers in India. Chapter 4 provides a theoretical framework for developing a climate vulnerability index. Chapter 5 is aimed at investigating how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and how they adapt their behavior in response to perceived changes in the climate. Using a binary logistic model, this thesis quantifies the impact of various explanatory variables that affect households’ choices of adaptation strategies. The final part of this thesis investigates the impacts of climate change on coastal regions. Anthropogenic climate change has caused global mean sea levels to rise substantially over the last century. As a result, local and regional sea level variations and the occurrence of sea level extremes increase climate change related risks for coastal regions. This amplifies the need to understand how waves and extremes change over the long term to assess the impacts of climate change. Thus, Chapter 6 provides a literature review and guide for policy makers on how to evaluate coastal adaptation projects. Moreover, Chapter 7 empirically investigates long-term trends in and extreme values of wave power and height on a local scale along Australia’s east and southeast coasts. A comparison of the distribution of wave power employing the Jensen-Shannon divergence and Laplacian embedding is used as a potential tool for investigating temporal and spatial variations of the wave climate between and within different locations. This provides new insights on Australia's wave climate on a local and regional scale in the context of climate change.

• Abstract: This dissertation consists of four articles dealing with inference and prediction in time series analysis. Uncertainty, in its many facets, plays a key role in all the articles. Article 1 estimates the role of speculation in the price surges in commodities in the 2000s. Article 2 evaluates a bootstrap algorithm for capturing the prediction uncertainty of nonlinear models. Article 3 develops and evaluates an improved bootstrap algorithm for autoregressive models. Article 4 discusses the interpretation of evidence regarding the predictability of financial markets. The article suggests an alternative view on market efficiency to the prevailing efficient markets hypothesis.

Econometric Modelling of Energy & Financial Markets

Three Papers on Agent-based Models of the Financial and Real Sectors

Assessing the Collective Behavior of Trading Algorithms and its Implications on Financial Market Systemic Risk

The Analysis of Unconventional Economic Datasets

Spatial market integration of wheat and rice in Pakistan and Sout Asia

• Betreuer: Prof. Dr. Peter Winker, Prof. Dr. Roland Herrmann (FB 09)
• Abstract: Wheat and rice are important staple food crops of South Asian countries including Pakistan. Market integration and transmission of price information flow is required to facilitate the process of trade among South Asian countries. The present study, therefore, was designed to see the extent of market integration of wheat and rice in Pakistan and among South Asian countries particularly Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. This study also aims to assess the degree of market integration from international markets to domestic markets of these countries.

  Previous research on the subject has attempted at analyzing market integration in Pakistan’s south and north Punjab regions, mainly relying on cointegration only and not considering advanced dynamic models and transaction costs to analyze the degree of integration. Therefore, this study is a first attempt to analyze the extent of market integration in the whole country using a TVECM model. Monthly wholesale price data of five regional markets of wheat and seven markets of rice from January 1988 to April 2011 were used for this study. The Threshold Vector Error Correction Model (TVECM) with a band of non-adjustment was applied to incorporate transaction costs. Results of the analysis revealed that wheat and rice markets of Pakistan are quite integrated in the long run as well as in the short run. It was found that linear ECMs or VECMs provide misleading results as compared to TVECMs. Short-run adjustments in the TVECM model provide mixed results depending on regimes as well as markets. Strong adjustments were found in the upper regime, which shows that when price differences are above the second threshold markets tend to adjust significantly.

  Market integration analysis of South Asia includes monthly wholesale prices of Bangladesh, India and Pakistan only, because of the unavailability of data for other countries in the region. Along with that, wheat export price series of the United States of America (US-HRW) and Thailand and Vietnam rice export prices were used to investigate market integration of South Asian countries with the world markets. Time series for South Asian wheat markets and for US-HRW price series starts from January 2000 and it ends to June 2011. Monthly prices of rice, from January 2000 to December 2013 were used for Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Thailand and Vietnam.

  Estimation results obtained from the application of the TVECM depicted a different story than VECMs. Statistically significant adjustment parameters were found in the case of wheat markets of Pakistan and India also. Along with that Pakistani wheat markets have shown significant adjustment to the changes in Bangladesh wheat prices as well as to the international prices. Whereas, Bangladesh markets have shown significant and higher adjustment in response to the changes in Indian wheat prices. No significant adjustment of Bangladesh and Indian wheat markets can been seen in result of the changes in the international wheat market.

  The TVECM estimations show that the Indian market is less integrated with the international markets, mainly because of their government interventions in the rice sector. For instance, they imposed a ban on the trade of wheat and rice after 2007 for couple of years. The degree of adjustment of Bangladesh and Pakistani rice markets was observed between 20 to 30 percent, as the rice sector of both the countries is less restrictive, and private traders are more involved. Hence, they are not only integrated in the long run, but in the short run as well.

  A higher degree of integration can be achieved with extended cooperation and by facilitating trade within the region, which will reduce the costs of trade, stabilize the prices in the region and will also be helpful in ensuring food security in the region. These objectives can be achieved by an efficient functioning of markets, by reducing government interventions and by encouraging private traders to participate actively.

Robust Methods in Risk and Asset Management

Contributions to Financial Econometric Modeling

Modeling Non-linearities in Economics - Methodological Aspects and Empirical Applications -

Empirical analysis of education decisions in West Africa

Empirical Research Methods Applied to the Case of Developing Countries

Agricultural reform impact on the rural development in Kyrgyzstan at transition period

Russia's Comparative Advantages in Foreign Trade: Forecasting Potential Dynamics and Identifying Stimulation Measures

Möglichkeiten einer Projektfinanzierung bei CSP-Vorhaben

Novel Estimation and Modeling Procedures for Financial Market Data Based on Optimization

Essays on Credit Risk Modeling

Agenten-Basierte Modelle für Wechselkurse: Ökonometrische Schätzung und Evaluierung