Ivan Savin

Russia's Comparative Advantages in Foreign Trade: Forecasting Potential Dynamics and Identifying Stimulation Measures

Titel: Russia's Comparative Advantages in Foreign Trade: Forecasting Potential Dynamics and Identifying Stimulation Measures

Abstract: Identifying factors which stimulate regional growth and international competitiveness and using them for forecasting are the aims of this thesis. Departing from the theory of comparative advantages and their impact, I demonstrate that such an approach has to be based on a sound theoretical foundation and on appropriate, advanced econometric methods. I propose the use of heuristic optimization techniques, Monte Carlo simulation experiments and Lasso-type estimators to avoid bias or misleading findings, which might be the result of applying standard regression methods when key assumptions are not satisfied. In addition, I demonstrate how some heuristic optimization-based methods can be used to obtain forecasts of industrial production in Russia and Germany founded on past observations and some leading indicators.
Publikation: Peter Lang Verlag